Study: Fibre Food Packaging to Lead by 2045

A new global study indicates that fibre-based materials could become the dominant choice for food packaging by 2045, driven by advances in barrier coating technologies, tightening environmental regulations and shifting consumer expectations.

Published by UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers, the report draws on the views of more than 230 packaging professionals across the global food packaging value chain. It highlights major shifts expected in material selection, recycling and regulation through 2045.

According to the survey, fibre-based packaging is expected to increase its share of the global food packaging market from 37% today to 42% by 2045. Nearly three-quarters (71%) of respondents believe fibre will be regarded as the most sustainable packaging material, citing continued innovation in barrier coatings that could enable fibre solutions to replace plastics in a wider range of food applications.

The findings signal growing pressure on converters, packaging producers and brand owners to reassess material strategies in anticipation of stricter compliance requirements and evolving cost structures.

“We’re encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies,” said Janne Varvemaa, Director, Products and Technology, UPM Specialty Materials. He added that the company’s focus is to support customers with sustainable packaging solutions that maintain product performance.

Regulation to Become Primary Market Driver

Beyond technological advances, respondents anticipate that government policy will become a decisive factor in packaging development. Seventy-one percent believe sustainability will evolve from a competitive advantage into a regulatory requirement, while 88% expect stricter environmental rules to significantly influence future packaging choices.

The study identifies Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation fees as major drivers of material selection. These policies are expected to increasingly favour recyclable packaging while raising costs for materials that are more difficult to recover or recycle.

Recycling Expected to Improve, Challenges Remain

Survey participants also expect global recycling rates for food packaging to rise from an estimated 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045. However, despite this progress, landfill and incineration are expected to remain significant, underscoring persistent gaps in global waste management systems.

Regional differences are expected to persist. Europe is projected to maintain a leadership position in recycling infrastructure and policy, while North America and the Asia-Pacific region are likely to face varying regulatory and infrastructure challenges that could affect recycling performance.

“The evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations. In particular, EPR and eco-modulation are directly influencing material choices,” said Ciaran Little, Vice President, Global Consulting Information Division, Smithers. He added that continued innovation in barrier technologies is opening new opportunities for fibre-based packaging to compete with conventional plastic alternatives.

While the study reflects industry sentiment rather than official corporate positions, it underscores a clear direction of travel: fibre-based materials are moving from an alternative to a mainstream packaging solution as regulatory pressure intensifies and advances in barrier technologies continue to expand their potential applications.

Source: Paper Advance