Finland: PTT forecasts 12% Increase in Timber Purchases from Private Forests by 2027

The volume of timber trade from private forests in Finland may increase by 12% in 2027 compared to 2026. Average nominal prices for balance timber are projected to be 5% higher, and for sawlogs — 2% higher. These estimates are included in the autumn forecast by the Pellervon taloustutkimus research institute — PTT, published on October 8.

Purchases will revive due to inventory depletion

According to Metsälehti, companies have long been ensuring production through previously purchased but not yet harvested timber. Harvesting has outpaced the conclusion of new contracts, gradually depleting these inventories.

The need to replenish them is expected to support trading activity at the end of 2026 and into 2027. The anticipated growth will return the volume of trade to a level slightly above the average of previous years.

At the same time, PTT forecasts an increase in industrial wood consumption in 2027 of only 1%. Therefore, the revival of purchases primarily reflects inventory replenishment rather than a sharp increase in production.

The balance segment this year is under pressure from production stoppages in the pulp and paper industry, inventory usage, and reduced timber purchases from thinning cuts. The projected price increase in 2027 will mean a partial recovery after the decline.

Forest owners delay sales

From January to August 2026, the volume of standing timber sales decreased by approximately 20% year on year.

According to a PTT survey by MTK, nearly 80% of respondents believe they will not sell timber this year. A third plan to sell next year. Some owners are holding back from transactions due to lower prices.

Among the assortments, spruce sawlogs are holding up better: their average annual price in 2026 is projected to decrease by approximately 1%, while pine and birch are expected to drop by 5%.

This forecast indicates a potential turnaround in purchases and prices for the market. Its realization will depend on inventory replenishment, seller activity, and demand for processed products.

Source: Forest Brief